Forecasting the weather, and other things

In the last few days there has been a frenzy of extreme weather warnings in Greece, coming from most weather people and organisations entrusted with keeping the general public informed. What struck me was the rising notes of panic, mentions of extreme phenomena and conditions almost too difficult to cope with - gripping stuff! Two storm fronts, one given a masculine name and one a feminine in these more equal times, but whose names managed to escape me, were going to lash out hither and thither bringing rain, high winds and, subsequently, snow, and chaos.

Well it did rain, sometimes heavily, as it often does this time of year. The wind blew a bit as well, sometimes joining in while it was still raining, something not exactly unusual. The sea was a bit rough, clouds scudded around, it was cold, to my mind just like it normally is in wintertime. What was so extreme about all this that required repeated warnings, notes of panic etc. etc.??? There was certainly little chaos, other than some under-prepared drivers getting stuck in snow.

It seems to me that we have so succumbed to the ridiculous illusion that we humans now control and understand everything in our world, so that we are outraged when things develop differently. How else to explain people being surprised and offended when January weather turns cold? How else to explain people expecting 'convenient' weather - not too cold, not too hot, not too wet, not too dry etc. etc. - all year round and overreacting when the nature does not oblige?

As you well know, dear loyal reader, I am rarely speechless, but behaviour as described does get me close to a silent state before I start to sob with despair. Can we truly be that stupid?

Another thing that we seem to have difficulty in grasping is that a forecast is, more often than not, at best an educated guess of what is to happen. The 'educated' part is to do with the use of sophisticated computer modelling and the intelligent input of required, useful parametres; this is not a definitive statement of what is to be - not as far as the weather is concerned, nor in the forecasting of any other future event. Reality may be far different but still forecasting can be useful because it helps us understand and anticipate what may be, making us aware of what MAY be and thus able to be better prepared to face things that will actually happen.

While forecasting is better than Madame Zsa-Zsa's crystal ball or astrology for helping to anticipate the future, it is not a firm guarantee of what WILL happen but an idea of what MAY happen; why we seem unable to fully grasp this is beyond me. The weather - and, indeed, the future - is, at least for now, not fully knowable. Perhaps the future will change this, but until then let's get on with it and stop complaining about things outside our, or anyone's, control.